After record temperatures in 2024, climate scientists had expected this year to be cooler, but instead the planet seems to be heading for a second year above the 1.5°C climate goal
By Madeleine Cuff
14 May 2025
A London sunset in May 2025
Guy Corbishley/Alamy
The aim of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5°C is slipping even further out of reach, as the latest climate data reveals global temperatures remain extremely high, with 2025 on course to rival 2024 as the hottest year on record.
April 2025 was the second-warmest April on record, beaten only by April 2024, according to data from both the European Union’s climate change service Copernicus and Berkeley Earth, a US non-profit. Global average temperatures for the month remained at 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels, the 21st month in the past 22 to have been above that crucial threshold, according to Copernicus. Berkeley Earth’s dataset puts April 2025’s average temperature at 1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, cooler than April 2024 by just 0.07°C.
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The continuing hot streak has taken scientists by surprise. 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures reaching 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. That was a landmark moment: the first time average temperatures had exceeded 1.5°C over a calendar year. Under the 2015 Paris climate accord, countries agreed to limit any global temperature rise to well below 2°C – and ideally to 1.5°C – above the pre-industrial level, a goal that is looking increasingly unlikely.
Scientists had expected the arrival of a cooling La Niña weather pattern in January to provide a reprieve, with temperatures expected to fall back a little this year. Instead, global temperatures have remained stubbornly high, increasing fears that 2025 could be the second year in a row above the critical 1.5°C watermark. “The recently ended La Niña event has not provided as much cooling as would typically have been expected,” said Robert Rohde at Berkeley Earth during a briefing on 13 May.
According to Berkeley Earth’s data, this year now has an 18 per cent chance of being the warmest on record, and a 53 per cent chance of being the second warmest on record, said Rohde. There is a 52 per cent chance of 2025 having average temperatures above 1.5°C.